The Yin Blog

Terrifying math (global warming and the federal budget)

I've seen a number of Facebook friends link favorably to Bill McKibben's article "Global Warming's Terrifying Math," and it is a certainly terrifying article.

It got me wondering, however, what the overlap is between people who agree with McKibben, and those who are similarly terrified about the massive unfunded liability that the federal government faces with regard to Medicare (not to mention Social Security). Both problems share the feature of requiring significant economic pain now in order to forestall (potentially) greater economic/other pain in the future.

I'm genuinely curious what the overlap is. I haven't canvassed this, but off the top of my head, the only prominent blogger I can think of who has affirmatively expressed concern about both problems is Megan McArdle.

Things that make me (sort of) wish I'd stayed in math/science

Overall I'm quite satisfied with where I am, but reading columns like these about the physics of "Angry Birds" or why the melting death scene in the movie "Volcano" is scientifically wrong do make me sort of wish that I'd stayed in math/science instead of coming over to the dark side (aka humanities). The closest I can come is writing about the legal issues in "24" (here and here).

Is the body mass index calculator relentlessly harsh?

Throughout adolescence and early adulthood, I was perpetually underweight.  I ate a lot, but between a fast metabolism, cross-country (one season), tennis (two seasons), and Ultimate (throughout journalism school and law school), I was never more than 150 pounds at 5'10", and frequently, I was more like 135 pounds, or even less.

Somehow -- and there's probably a direct causation here -- when I started working as a lawyer, however, I broke past 160 pounds, and at times hit as much as 170.  I managed to get down to about 165, but when we moved to Oregon, my beloved treadmill did not make the trip with us.  For the first year and a half or so of being in Oregon, I was without that treadmill and too lazy/unmotivated/busy to find a gym, so I hit 170 or so again.

Now, I don't need the body mass index calculator to tell me that 170 is too much for me to weigh.  Per my height, that's a BMI of 24.4, which is still in the "normal range" for weight, but dangerously close to 24.9, which is the upper limit before you get classified as "overweight."  (Basically, another 3.5 pounds. . . .)  Some generous folks have told me that I didn't look nearly overweight last fall, so maybe I hid the extra pounds well.

Anyway, I found a nearby gym/club that I like and have been going there since the beginning of this year, and I've managed to drop about 8-10 pounds so far.

But wow, BMI is pretty harsh!  At 160 pounds, my BMI is still 23.0.  To put that in context, "normal weight" is a BMI range of 18.5 to 24.9.  The middle point of that range (~21.75) would correspond to 152 pounds for me.  It's not so much that 152 pounds is an unreasonable weight goal for me (I think at this point I'd be pleased with anything from 150-155 pounds), but that I could weigh as little as 128 pounds and still be considered normal weight per BMI.

128 pounds?  Really?  I mean, I know that we Americans are relatively overweight as a group, but is it really healthy for a 5'10" male to be below 135-140 pounds?

"What could possibly go wrong with that idea?"

Scientists to Clone Woolly Mammoth in Five Years (PC World) 

When I'm not reading law-related non-fiction books (mostly about terrorism/national security), I have a fondness for adventure thrillers, especially those by Alistair MacLean, Desmond Bagley, Lee Child, Michael Connelly, and others.  But I have a special weakness for a particular subset of thriller fiction that basically asks "what could possibly go wrong with that idea?"

The prime example of this kind of story, of course, is Michael Crichton's "Jurassic Park."  Recreate dinosaurs on an island as part of a dinosaur zoo?  What could possibly go wrong?  Many of the techno-thrillers by Douglas Preston and Lincoln Child are also prime examples, as well as Childs' solo effort, "Terminal Freeze," in which a reality TV crew journey up to the Arctic to record the thawing out of what's believed to be a sabertooth tiger carcass in a block of ice.  I suppose the whole alien-government conspiracy mythology of the old "X-Files" would qualify too.

Anyway, cloning mammoth DNA and then impregnating a female African elephant with the embroyo . . . what could possibly go wrong?!?  Not to mention, with global warming and all, would you really want to be a massively furry woolly mammoth in today's world?  (Yes, I know that the scientists are saying they'll decide whether to go through with the implantation after they see if it works.)

Maybe Rahm Emanuel is onto something. . . .

Ann Althouse has declared that it's "talk like Rahm Emanuel day":

Come on, everybody! It's exciting. It's liberating.

Somebody not talking straight to you?

"Take your f***ing tampon out and tell me what you have to say."

Funny enough, Rahm might be onto something.  I was watching "Mythbusters" last night on my TiVo, and one of the myths they tested was whether cursing increases pain tolerance.  The test involved seeing how long you could keep your hand in a bowl of ice cold water before it was too much to bear (the control), followed by the same test except that you were supposed to curse.

The result?  On average, the test subjects kept their hands in the ice cold water 30% longer if they were cursing!

I've never worked in politics, but it does seem like it would be mighty painful.  Maybe this explains why Rahm is so successful?

Does this mean lawyers, especially in these days of market carnage, are mosquito repellant?

According to this story, it sounds like mosquitos can smell stress, and they don't like it!

Talk about an understated news headline . . . .

This story shouldn't be a surprise to any of you who are astronomy junkies, or anyone who's read the classic Larry Niven short story "Neutron Star," but check this out: the news headline reads "Neutron Star Crust is Stronger than Steel."  Considering that neutron stars are just one step short of black holes in density, this is what you'd expect.

But if you read the story, you'll see this:

A new study suggests how strong they are: The crust of neutron stars could be 10 billion times stronger than steel, based on an innovative model of elements compressed as tightly as they would be on the surface of a neutron star.

10 billion times stronger than steel!  The headline doesn't exactly convey the scale of how much stronger neutron star crust is than steel, does it?

Of all of the books to get on Kindle . . . .

. . . "When Technology Fails" would not seem to be one.  I mean, if there's an EMP attack, your Kindle or other e-reader is likely to be fried, so you won't have access to all of the good low-tech or no-tech info contained in the book.  Strange that amazon.com is offering a Kindle version of the book.

Travel delays and airline schedules

Happy New Year to everyone!

Yesterday, our return flight from Atlanta was delayed by half an hour, but we still landed at the scheduled time. . . .  At first, I figured it was merely the usual sort of padding that airlines put into their schedules so that they can inflate their "on-time arrival" percentages, but half an hour is a lot of padding.  Besides, if that were the entire explanation, there would be a lot of flights arriving half an hour early, which I can't ever remember happening.

So my working hypothesis is that the scheduled departure/arrival times are based on maximum fuel efficiency, the equivalent of driving at 55 mph.  When the flight departure is delayed, however, the pilot flies at a faster, less fuel efficient speed, the equivalent of 90 mph.  It burns more fuel, which is bad from the airline's point of view, but it helps maintain the flight schedule, reducing delays and traveler frustration, which is good from the airline's point of view.

Am I right about this?

Let's hope Gabrielle isn't next

How many planets are there in the Solar System?

Nine is the answer today, but it might not be for long.  2500 astronomers are meeting right now to debate whether Pluto really is a planet, and if so, whether a larger ball of ice dubbed "Xena" by its discoverer is also a planet.

Xena?  The warrior princess?  Okay, Xena is acceptable, but let's just not go for her annoying sidekick, Gabrielle. . . .