Tony Gwynn redux

Earlier in the week, I blogged about the challenge that my buddy Peter accepted, which was to find some journeyman baseball player whose rate stats were comparable to Jim Thome's. He accepted this challenge because he rejected my methodology of using career OBP and SLG to show that Tony Gwynn was overrated. (Specifically, I pointed out that Gwynn's career OBP and SLG of .388 and .459 were comparable -- though inferior -- to Rusty Greer's .387/.478.)

Peter's response:

First, I calculated the margin of error in your relationship:

Games AB BA OBP SLG OPS

Tony Gwynn 2440 9288 .338 .388 .459 .847
Rusty Greer 1027 3829 .305 .387 .478 .865

The OBP between Mr. Gwynn and Greer is essentially the same, so the charge is that Mr. Gwynn’s primary advantage lies in BA (although your argument takes advantage of the fact that most people fail to realize that Rusty Greer was a very good player whose primary fault was injury, as you admit). The additional 33 points in BA amounts to about an 11 percent difference. So here are Jim Thome’s numbers:

Games AB BA OBP SLG OPS

Jim Thome 1536 5218 .285 .411 .568 .979

Now we are looking at OPS, which double counts statistics a bit. Nevertheless, an 11 percent difference in Jim Thome’s OPS translates into 108 points, or 871. Here are some comparable players (one who is within 20% of Greer’s playing time and others with greater playing time) with a career OPS greater than 871:

Player A 1397 4862 .319 .393 .530 .943
Player B 1536 5537 .284 .389 .506 .895
Player C 1008 3566 .306 .409 .513 .924

If I had more time, I am confident a search would reveal more players who approximate this profile. Player A is Kenny Williams, who predominantly played for the St. Louis Browns. Player B is Tim Salmon, who plays for your beloved (but overrated) Angels. And Player C is Bobby Abreu, who plays with Jim Thome. No reasonable person believes that Williams or Salmon will ever make the Hall of Fame. Abreu has a theoretical chance at the Hall of Fame, on par with the probability of there being a warm January day here in Minnesota (i.e., it happens, but nobody waits for it or can recall the last such occurrence).

As you may recall, my primary objection is to extrapolating numbers against Mr. Gwynn. Williams and Abreu demonstrate that sustained and consistent performance is not to be underestimated; Rusty Greer might have comparable percentages to Mr. Gwynn, but this is why objective standards such as Mr. Gwynn’s 3141 hits (excepting Robin Yount) and 543 doubles (18th all-time) also are important. Salmon just puts Thome’s performance thus far in this objective perspective.

Give Mr. Gwynn some more credit; Ted Williams did. And Mr. Gwynn is one of the better player commentators on television right now.

This is clever, but I don't think this comparison works. The point of the Greer/Gwynn comparison was that batting average is overrated; it assumed that OBP and SLG are better measures of hitting performance. One can object to that, but if you agree with the assumption, you can't then lop 10 percent off Thome's OPS and call those players comparable. Remember that Greer's OPS is better than Gwynn's. (In the interest of full disclosure, I should point out that a valid objection to the Greer/Gwynn comp would be to look at adjusted OPS, which takes into account ballpark factors. When you do that, Gwynn does come out ahead of Greer; however, Gwynn's adjusted OPS still doesn't crack the top 100 all-time, and is tied among active players with John Olerud and Ryan Klesko -- neither of whom is going to the Hall of Fame.

Additionally, Gwynn's one-dimensional hitting is reflected in the fact that despite the fact that OBP and SLG both build on BA, Greer is able to catch Gwynn in OBP (just about) and pass him in SLG despite starting down .030 points in each. None of Kenny Williams, Tim Salmon, or Bobby Abreu catches Thome in OBP and SLG.

The floor is open to readers for comment.

Comments

[B.C.]

As I said in my original response, it seems unlikely that there are many players out there with a comparable career SLG to Thome's .568. In fact, no one has come within 30 pts of that mark with the examples put forth. I think it's safe to call the bet.

My original argument was more about situational hitting and how a batter's value depends on their role. It may be worth considering that Gwynn hit mostly out of the 2 or 3 hole on some pretty bad teams, while Thome has batted 3-5 on some pretty strong lineups. (I hope this is correct as it is from memory and I have no numbers to back it up.)

Ultimately I still don't think Gwynn is being fairly evaluated, and it signifies the difficulty with baseball analysis across the board. Everyone will have a stat they prefer or a way of looking at the players they love/hate in a favorable light (I'm certainly no exception). If one thinks Gwynn is overrated, there is certainly a way to reinforce that view in a statistical comparison. Precisely what makes baseball so great, of course. My opinion on Gwynn is formed largely on the little things done on and off the field that are so difficult to quantify, whether it be advancing a runner with a ball to the other side of the infield or working to improve the other hitters on the team. He will be remembered as one of the best pure contact hitters in the game, and I'd say that's exactly how it should be.

Anyway, if this bet can wait a couple years, I have a player for you. .411 OBP, .612 SLG, and if he hits at that rate for two more years and then drops off the face of the earth, he'll be exactly the guy you're looking for. Any guesses?

[Brian]

Professor,

Have you ever read Moneyball? I enjoyed it, although I did not agree with all of it. I don't like the stat or value-based arguments in real baseball. Fantasy baseball is one thing, real life is another.

The Abreu-Thome comparison proves my point, at least to me. While Abreu has better overall stats, I'll take Thome in a New York minute over him. Last year, when the Phillies were still in contention during the last 6 weeks, Thome was a man posessed, clutch hit, after clutch hit, as usual for him. Abreu, as usual for him, did nothing when it counted most. Believe me, thanks to TiVo and the satellite dish, I rarely miss a Phils game. I have total confidence in Thome when it counts, and none in Abreu.

I'll add this comparison too: Who has been the top SSs over the past decade? In fantasy, I'd want A-Rod, Nomar, and Renteria. But, in real life, I'd take Jeter over all of them. Jeter by himself destroys the Moneyball system as applied to real life. That system is the equivalent of "warning-track power."

Anyway, it's all Bill James' fault we are having this argument. Thank God for him, because I still love baseball as much as I did when I was a boy walking to the Vet to see the Phils play for a buck.

[Tung Yin]

I haven't read "Moneyball," but I think I'd be sympathetic to what it says. By the way, by stats, Thome is clearly better than Abreu.

[Brian]

According to my fantasy league stats, Abreu is #5 overall, and Thome is #19. Not a huge difference, but Abreu does add more categories, like SB and better average.

[Tung Yin]

Brian, my mistake. I thought you were talking about career stats, where Thome's SLG is much higher than Abreu's (and their OBPs are equal).

By the way, did Abreu earn a little bit of confidence with the walk-off HR the other night?

[Salieri]

I would agree that the "Moneyball" strategy is only one of a few good ones, and the best teams are those who (to use a cliche) can beat you in so many ways. I think that this is why the A's have done so well in the regular season the past few years, and not so well in the playoffs: Moneyball works well on average, but when you absolutely have to win one game, it helps if you have more offensive and defensive dimensions.

[Brian]

I have to admit, Abreu has really earned his all-start slot lately. But, unlike Thome, Abreu has not been there when it has counted late in the season. I am praying that he proves me wrong time and again. Nothing would make me happier.

[Scott]

First, as a devout Phils phan, I'm glad you are using Thome as the subject of the bet, because he is just plain awesome (except when he chokes in the Home Run Derby).

Second, I want to echo those who defend Gwynn because of certain things that may not show up on the stat sheet. Tony Gwynn is a smart, pure hitter, who studied the game and pitchers in order to improve his play. Sure, he didn't hit for power, etc., but he was/is one of the greatest contact hitters of all time. He could "place" his hits; e.g. I bet you could put a target down just behind the SS and say "hit one here" and Gwynn could get it with a couple feet. He is also a great instructor. As someone mentioned, he worked with his teammates to improve their hitting. Now, as coach of San Diego State's team, he is working on developing future ballplayers (and according to reports, doing a fine job).

Gwynn is not overrated if he is given credit for what he really was: a solid, consistent player who hit for average. All things considered, he belongs in the Hall.

[Tung Yin]

I've never disputed that Gwynn belongs in the Hall of Fame, especially given the presence of very good but far from great players like Robin Yount. I do think that Gwynn is overrated because so much emphasis is placed on his .338 career BA, given his much less impressive career OBP, SLG, OPS, and adjusted OPS+. The example of his skills that you bring up -- studying pitchers, control of where the ball goes -- are all part of what allowed him to hit .338. But, while I wouldn't say it's an empty .338 (he did hit a lot of doubles), I also think there are a bunch of players today who are much better *hitters* than Gwynn despite lower batting averages. For example, is there any real dispute that both Thome and Abreu have been far more valuable hitters on a rate stat basis than Gwynn was? Gwynn is in the Hall because of his .338 average and his longevity -- the longevity I agree with, but his rate stats just aren't that special.

[Brian]

Scott,

You don't have to sell Gwynn to me. SOLD.

Thome did hit two rockets that went foul in the derby. Unlike most of the other guys, he had to hit to right field. Look at switch-hitting Lance Berkman. He chose to go at it from the right side. Left field at MM Field is a joke.