This morning, my assistant GM (i.e., my 8 year old son) and I took part in a fantasy football draft in a league run by Professor Bainbridge. We picked 11th out of 12 teams, which kind of wiped out my initial plan of drafting either a top 3 QB (Rodgers, Brees, or Brady) or Calvin "Megatron" Johnson. In fact, by the time it got to me, after players I'd excluded because of injury concerns, etc., the top two choices were TEs -- Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham(!).
Yeah, I didn't like the idea of spending a first round pick on a TE, but I went ahead and picked Gronk.
After that, my picks went:
Larry Fitzgerald (WR). I wasn't too keen on this pick either, given the considerable disaster that makes up the Arizona QB situation, but Fitz had a nice year last year with the same problem. And it's a PPR league, so he should do well.
Mike Wallace (WR). I felt like I should take a RB here, but no one jumped out.
Michael Turner (RB). Not feeling good about having him as my top RB.
Tony Romo (QB). Going into the draft, my son N said, "Maybe we should take Tom Brady." (This was before we found out our drafting position.) I said there were three really good QBs, but if we didn't get one of those, we should wait because there were lots of good ones. I did say, however, that I was worried about Romo because his most reliable receiver, Jason Witten, is out possibly for the year with a spleen injury. Naturally, we ended up taking Romo.
Frank Gore (RB). I seem to recall times when Gore was a monster. I feel those were years past.
Michael Bush (RB). Unfortunately, this isn't a spread offense game where you can keep rotating RBs. Quantity does not beat quality. However, maybe Forte blows up or something.
Roy Helu (RB). We were in the middle of lunch, so some of these picks were made quite quickly.
Green Bay (D/ST). I had thought about taking SF a few picks ago, but there was a run of D/STs at this point, and I didn't want to get left with the dregs.
Santonio Holmes (WR). Just some bye week insurance.
Nate Washington (WR). Surprised at how many yards he had last year.
Matt Schaub (QB). Hopefully, he'll last long enough for me to use during Romo's bye week, if not other weeks when Romo has a tough matchup.
Rashard Mendenhall (RB). This guy was my first round pick last year (in a different league). Obviously, a crushing disappointment. I took a flier on him just in case he can regain some of his 2010 form in the later part of the season.
Buffalo (D/ST). Dunno, they seem okay, and cold/bad weather should help them later in the season.
Mike Nugent (K). Is there any difference in kickers?
FootballGuys.com has this to say about my team:
Your starting lineup is respectable, but the lack of depth is a serious problem. If you're lucky enough to avoid the injury bug, you might be OK. But that's a tough thing to have to count on.
To make this team into a serious contender, you are going to need to be extremely active in trades and on the waiver wire. You esentially need to turn over significant parts of this roster. Last year running backs like Michael Bush, Darren Sproles, and Fred Jackson all could be had dirt cheap at the draft. Additionally, wide receivers like Victor Cruz and Laurent Robinson were available after a lot of the drafts. Quarterbacks like Cam Newton last season, Michael Vick in 2010, Brett Favre in 2009, Matt Cassel in 2008, and Derek Anderson in 2007 could all be had cheap just after draft time. You are likely going to need to land many of this year's top waiver plays to make any significant noise, so pay close attention to increased workloads, targets, injuries, etc.
Players we particularly like on this team include Nate Washington, the Packers defense, and the Bills defense. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
- With great inseason management, we think you have about a 55 percent chance of making the playoffs.
- With good inseason management, we think you have about a 40 percent chance of making the playoffs.
- With average inseason management, we think you have a 19 percent chance of making the playoffs.